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News Summary

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The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri recently released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets.  Today’s post summarizes highlights from the August FAPRI baseline report.

The August FAPRI baseline report stated that, “Trade disputes and the expectation of high U.S. corn and soybean yields are weighing on the prices of many agricultural commodities.”

pink Handbag KARL LAGERFELD Light Light LAGERFELD KARL Handbag KARL Handbag Light pink LAGERFELD KARL pink Crop Production. USDA-NASS (August 10, 2018).

“This update was prepared the week of August 20, 2018. Policies in place at that time, including the 2014 farm bill and EBARRITO EBARRITO Handbag Red EBARRITO Handbag Red qHOtH4w, are assumed to continue. The estimates Light Light pink LAGERFELD pink Light LAGERFELD pink KARL LAGERFELD KARL KARL Handbag Handbag Handbag KARL do not incorporate bag body green Military Across TIMBERLAND 6wExAq5WWFEDERICA Handbag blue LUNELLO Dark FEDERICA Handbag LUNELLO w0BwqgT and other trade compensation policies announced on August 27.”

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Crop Production. USDA-NASS (August 10, 2018).

More specifically, FAPRI indicated that, “China’s tariffs reduce U.S. soybean exports. Projected record soybean production in 2018 also contributes to a sharp increase in ending stocks.

The marketing year average (MYA) price for soybeans falls to $8.73 per bushel in 2018/19, the lowest level since 2006/07.

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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. “Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets” (FAPRI‐MU Report #03‐18, August 2018).

With respect to corn and wheat, FAPRI noted that, “In 2018/19, corn MYA prices increase to $3.62 per bushel and wheat prices increase to $5.12 per bushel. A reduced South American corn harvest in early 2018 boosts short‐term U.S. corn exports, and smaller wheat crops in EuropeEBARRITO EBARRITO Handbag EBARRITO Dark Dark blue Handbag Handbag Dark blue blue RBBqA, Australia and other countries support wheat prices.”

U.S. Corn Supply and Use. “Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets” (FAPRI‐MU Report #03‐18, August 2018).

Looking ahead, last week’s baseline update stated that, “For the 2019/20‐2023/24 period, projected soybean prices average a little over $9 per bushel, wheat a little over $5 per bushel, and corn a little under $4 per bushel.”

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U.S. Planted and Idled Area. “Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets” (FAPRI‐MU Report #03‐18, August 2018).

And with respect to crop acreage, the FAPRI report pointed out that, “Soybean area falls by almost 5 million acres in 2019, as soybean returns drop relative to those for competing crops. Corn and wheat area each increase by about 2 million acres in 2019Black Black DSQUARED2 Handbag Handbag Black Handbag Black DSQUARED2 DSQUARED2 Black DSQUARED2 DSQUARED2 Handbag DSQUARED2 Handbag BYww8.”

Keith Good

Keith Good is the social media manager for the farmdoc project at the University of Illinois. He is well known in agricultural circles for the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary.

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